Reality Check: A Newly Elected Administration Navigates Lebanon's Oligarchy to Address Reforms and Reconstruction

 

Lebanon has recently elected a president, and the immediate response might be, “So what?” On top of this, the parliament also chose its prime minister-designate. The difference between the level of news from Syria last month and Lebanon this month sounds almost incomparable. At least regarding Syria, the fact that Bashar al-Assad is no longer the country's leader while the incumbent has not yet been elected still maintains an element of surprise for the future. However, I am currently focused on Lebanon.

 

Lebanon's political transition has so far been peaceful  and orderly. Although the transition was structured,  Lebanon’s newly elected leadership — barring unexpected circumstances — has fanned the flames of a “White Revolution.” A glance at Lebanon's history reveals a single presidential tenure that is fondly remembered. I refer to the late President Fouad Chehab (1958-1964), whose reformist approach focused on state-building and developmental policies to reduce social inequalities. President Charles Helou (1964-1970), Chehab’s successor, is remembered for his efforts to continue his predecessor's agenda, but he encountered significant domestic and foreign challenges. The newly elected president, Joseph Aoun, comes from a military background and a non-feudal and non-prominent family. In his inaugural speech, he reiterated many of the reformist characteristics of former president Chehab, promising to uphold a sense of national unity and modernize the country. 

 

I will refrain from further comparing the Fouad Chehab and Joseph Aoun administrations, given that more than half a century separates them. Still, looking at the past of the Lebanese administrations makes the new administration seem like a fresh start. There is a growing consensus among Lebanon's youth that it is time for the country’s emancipation from corruption, political instability, the erosion of law and order and accountability, ineffective public services, economic collapse, human rights violations, and enrichment for the tiny elite at the expense of the majority. Joseph Aoun’s inauguration speech stands apart from those of his predecessors. Unlike his predecessors, Joseph Aoun's inauguration speech sends an optimistic message to reform-minded Lebanese.

 

While the October 17th revolution did not define Joseph Aoun, many reform-minded Lebanese supported his positions during that eventful year. Aoun’s silence prevented the military from interfering with politics and politicians from interfering with the military. However, his actions in October 2019 revealed much about him. In the words of Lebanese academic and columnist Assad Qattan, “When his angry superiors (under Michel Aoun's previous administration) ordered him to shoot at protesters in October 2019, he [Joseph Aoun, then an army general] rebelled, refusing to shoot at the people he came from." His decision won the support and enthusiasm of many Lebanese, especially Lebanon’s youth. Meanwhile, the Prime Minister-designate, Nawaf Salam, secured the voters’ and even some parliamentarians’ cabinet choices.

 

Nawaf Salam's selection as Prime Minister-designate became another factor in the support of the new administration. While protesters demanded an end to corruption, some elites demanded the ‘coronation’ of a Prime Minister whose conduct was questioned by large population segments; their choice, Najib Mikati, the caretaker prime minister, received nine out of 128 votes. Meanwhile, his reformist rival, Nawaf Salam, received 84 votes out of 128.

 

The opposition to the new administration rejects the fundamental democratic principle of majority rule. As a result, a numerical minority can rule as if it were a majority by maintaining positions and attitudes consistent with past unconstitutional practices that used to form cabinets outside the formal structures of the parliamentary system. This opposition defies logic in every way, for a lack of a stable government impedes the post-war reconstruction plans and negatively impacts the well-being of the opposition's constituency in the southern part of the country. 

 

Those who oppose the new administration avoid reforms addressing the country’s catastrophic crises by sidestepping them. Of these crises, I choose three: first, the Hezbollah-Israel War. According to a World Bank report from November 2024, 99,209 housing units have been damaged, with 18% — around 17,857 — obliterated. A total of $3.2 billion has been lost because of the destruction of the housing sector, which has forced nearly one million people to leave their homes. 

 

Secondly, Lebanon's banking crisis, which began in 2019, has negatively affected the nation's financial stability and daily life. Longstanding economic mismanagement, political instability, and regional conflicts are to blame. Over 98% of the Lebanese pound's value has been lost since 2019, causing hyperinflation. The annual inflation rate in 2023 was 221.3%. As a result of the banking crisis, depositors were restricted from withdrawing their savings.

 

Thirdly, the 2020 Beirut Port explosion devastated Lebanon's fragile economy and exacerbated its financial and social problems. The World Bank estimates that 300,000 people have been displaced because their homes have been destroyed or rendered uninhabitable due to the blast. Infrastructure damage, including damage to Lebanon's port, its leading trade gateway, hindered much of the country's economic activity. The explosion resulted in a loss of $2.9-3.5 billion in economic activity in the surrounding areas.

 

Hezbollah and Israel fought a catastrophic war in 2023-2024. Though the opposition represented by Hezbollah was instrumental in its outbreak, it has so far failed to work cooperatively with the government and secure funds for reconstruction. As Lebanon faces tough times, there is a great need for all the help it can get from the world and its international organizations. Attempts by the opposition to delay cabinet formation threaten the country's access to loans and foreign assistance available only to newly elected governments.